| by G F Sutton - 23 February 2005 Will 21st century economics need an overhaul someday as a result of a new workforce, computerized robots, dominating the productive economy? Imagine for a moment, that factory assembly lines continue to be revolutionized by the addition of robotic arms for simple tasks, but that in addition, now that the computer age is well upon us and advancing exponentially, computerized robots become ever more capable of replacing the complex motions which today require human labor. It seems conceivable, perhaps inevitable that advancing technology will virtually remove humans from the manufacturing process. Before the close of the 21st century, we will likely witness a radical transformation of the physical economy as industry after industry automates in ever increasing degrees. Imagine no human truck drivers, taxi drivers or bus drivers as robotic vehicles prove to be far safer without human error and less expensive to operate. Imagine no cashiers in the supermarkets, this is beginning now. Imagine no human bank tellers, well underway. But this is just the beginning. No pilots on aircraft, only a small group of pilots on the ground at computer terminals, available in case of emergency, to remotely fly an airliner to safety in the event of computer failure. The military is already using robotic drones piloted from the ground. Someday, there will likely be no air traffic controllers, and midair collisions will be nearly unheard of. Imagine completely automated coal mines, iron mines, automated trucking delivering iron ore to automated steel producing plants. Then robotic trucks delivering steel, rubber, plastic and everything needed to completely automated automobile factories. And further imagine that the completed automobiles drive themselves to the dealers, or more likely, they drive themselves directly to their new owners' homes and introduce themselves! And here is the problem that current economic theory and practice has not even begun to address. If virtually no one is involved in the productive, physical economy, who deserves to receive its fruits? Who will own the fruits of computerized robotic labor after the patents expire on the robotic and computer technology? Let's assume for the moment, that computers and robots will never become self-aware or anything resembling alive. So property rights will continue to be granted only to humans. We will still have some humans authoring new books for the robots to publish and inventing new devices for the robots to manufacture. We will likely have human surgeons performing the most complex medical procedures and researching new medical advances. But each new drug or medical procedure will eventually be handed over to robotic servants who will do the repetitive jobs more reliably and more safely. But who will get a paycheck? Authors, song writers, inventors, doctors, lawyers and accountants? We can't all be artists and inventors. Even if some of the intellectual professions survive the coming centuries of progress, only a tiny minority of the population will have any buying power because the sad truth is, most of us need to find jobs working with our hands. So imagine yourself in a world where the production of food, homes, cars, airplanes, toasters, computers and virtually the entire service economy goes on night and day with only a relatively few robotics engineers supervising and maintaining the system. Will pure capitalism work then? |